Future Population and Education Trends in the Countries of North Africa

Research Reports, which record research conducted at IIASA, are independently reviewed before publication. Views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Contents Foreword v Acknowledgments vii 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Research question 1 1.2 Projection approach 2 1.3 Relevance of education 4 2. Fertility 6 2.1 Rural/Urban fertility differentials 10 2.2 Fertility and women's education 13 2.3 Fertility and women's education in North Africa 15 2.4 Fertility and family-planning policies 17 2.5 Future prospects 18 3. Mortality 20 4. Education 24 4.1 Education and development 24 4.2 Educational systems and policies in North Africa 27 5. Scenario Assumptions for the Next 50 Years 47 5.1 Base year parameters 49 5.2 Scenario assumptions 50 Color Plates 59 6. Analyses of Projection Results 65 6.1 Population size 65 6.2 Age structure 71 6.3 Educational composition 72 7. Outlook 74 7.1 Probabilistic population projections of North Africa to 2100 74 7.2 Possible future migration from North Africa to Europe 79 8. Foreword The North African region has one of the most rapid population growth rates of the world. Whereas the population has increased by a factor of three since 1950, it is expected to further increase by at least a factor of two, most likely a factor of four, and possibly even a factor of eight, depending on future fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Given the extremely arid climate of this world region, where fresh water availability is already a serious problem, and that current climate models project significant further warming well above the expected average warming of the world, these population projections imply that there will be serious problems for the future of this region and possibly increased migration pressure into Europe. This report provides a concise and comprehensive review of available data on past demographic trends in the region and combines this analysis with expert opinion on alternative future demographic trends (as described in Lutz, 1996) to calculate likely ranges of future population growth. A very important and innovative feature of this study is that it explicitly includes the educational status of the population in its projections. This is done by means of multistate population projections, a method that largely originated at IIASA. Educational projections are an important task in themselves because education, as the major component of human capital, is a key factor in national …